Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 2.561523 2.994672 3.475266 4.047569 4.710082 5.452480 6.347119
2025-12-14 1.828370 2.388725 3.078436 3.987721 5.152897 6.593780 8.508855
2025-12-21 1.401430 2.006772 2.818145 3.980473 5.597715 7.762602 10.874447
2025-12-28 1.214930 1.878322 2.832896 4.297781 6.478938 9.594382 14.367695
2026-01-04 1.020707 1.688702 2.711909 4.379818 7.014595 10.996007 17.442263
2026-01-11 0.873042 1.535053 2.607471 4.452294 7.523663 12.401712 20.693184
2026-01-18 0.747572 1.390175 2.486007 4.466228 7.924491 13.670706 23.876805
2026-01-25 0.640334 1.254748 2.353867 4.432961 8.228166 14.802320 26.960612
2026-02-01 0.522769 1.077704 2.117432 4.172813 8.087635 15.144707 28.709638
2026-02-08 0.442114 0.955881 1.961070 4.031619 8.134336 15.808470 31.095450
2026-02-15 0.387224 0.875494 1.870346 3.999900 8.377780 16.852435 34.301606
2026-02-22 0.359187 0.846314 1.876598 4.161221 9.018901 18.721587 39.310302
2026-03-01 0.314972 0.775817 1.790368 4.126734 9.276441 19.911252 43.211905
2026-03-08 0.276193 0.710903 1.706613 4.086675 9.521695 21.118970 47.337068
2026-03-15 0.245610 0.659664 1.645016 4.086324 9.853756 22.551641 52.129680
2026-03-22 0.238932 0.666658 1.719924 4.414313 10.974795 25.825441 61.346737
2026-03-29 0.218711 0.634640 1.695415 4.499375 11.540577 27.937001 68.227114
2026-04-05 0.200282 0.603795 1.668593 4.574057 12.091242 30.080934 75.449261
2026-04-12 0.181225 0.567388 1.621286 4.588461 12.493873 31.926377 82.195286
2026-04-19 0.162459 0.528028 1.559450 4.554351 12.767185 33.493092 88.459754
2026-04-26 0.137462 0.464680 1.420622 4.287351 12.388793 33.400478 90.585209
2026-05-03 0.120022 0.421183 1.330591 4.142427 12.317980 34.076024 94.752080
2026-05-10 0.108217 0.393438 1.282041 4.109871 12.554796 35.580517 101.274000